Rate Lock Advisory

Tuesday, June 24th

Tuesday’s bond market has opened in positive territory following favorable economic news and no big surprises from Fed Chairman Powell (yet). Stocks are showing solid gains of 309 points in the Dow and 201 points in the Nasdaq. The bond market is currently up 3/32 (4.33%), which should improve this morning’s mortgage rates by approximately .125 of a discount point.

3/32

Bonds

30 yr - 4.33%

309

Dow

42,891

201

NASDAQ

19,832

Mortgage Rate Trend

Trailing 90 Days - National Average

  • 30 Year Fixed
  • 15 Year Fixed
  • 5/1 ARM

Indexes Affecting Rate Lock

Medium

Positive

Consumer Confidence Index

This morning’s relevant economic report came from the Conference Board, who announced their Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) for June stood at 93.0. This was a considerable decline from May’s revised 98.4 and more of a drop from the 99.1 that was expected. The weaker reading means surveyed consumers were less confident about their own financial situations than they were last month. This is good news for bonds and mortgage rates because waning confidence usually translates into softer consumer spending numbers that make up over two-thirds of the U.S. economy.

Medium

Neutral

Misc Fed

Fed Chairman Powell is testifying before the House Financial Services Committee this morning as part of the Fed’s semi-annual congressional update about the economy and monetary policy. So far, he hasn’t said anything that is of much concern. He has stated that the Fed is worried about the impact tariffs will have on inflation and the U.S. economy. He also reiterated that they are prepared to hold steady on key short-term interest rates until they feel inflation will continue to move lower. The latter comment contradicts a couple of other Fed members that recently said they are open to a rate cut at next month’s FOMC meeting. In short, we haven’t seen much of a reaction to his opening statement. If we get a surprise, it will come during their Question and Answer part of the session.

Low

Unknown

Fed Talk

Tomorrow has three events that we will be watching, starting with day two of Chairman Powell’s testimony. He will be speaking to the Senate Banking Committee at 10:00 AM ET tomorrow. Market reaction usually happens on the first day of this testimony, mostly because his prepared statement should match what he said today. In other words, if there are any surprises, they will likely come during the Q&A portion.

Low

Unknown

New Home Sales

Also at 10:00 AM ET will be the release of May's New Home Sales report that tracks sales of newly constructed homes. It is the sister release to yesterday’s Existing Home Sales report but covers a much smaller portion of all sales. Monday’s version showed an unexpected rise in home resales. Tomorrow’s release is predicted to show a decline in sales, although it will likely not have much of an impact on mortgage rates because this data covers such a small percentage of the housing sector.

Medium

Unknown

Treasury Auctions (5,7,10,20,30 year)

The day’s third event will come during afternoon trading tomorrow. This is when results of the 5-year Treasury Note auction will be posted. If the 1:00 PM ET announcement indicates there was a strong demand for the securities, we could see afternoon bond gains and possibly a slight improvement in mortgage rates. However, if investor demand was weak, don’t be surprised to see a bit of pressure in bonds that may lead to an upward revision to rates tomorrow afternoon.

Float / Lock Recommendation

If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would.... Lock if my closing was taking place within 7 days... Lock if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days... Float if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days... Float if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now... This is only my opinion of what I would do if I were financing a home. It is only an opinion and cannot be guaranteed to be in the best interest of all/any other borrowers.